Example Scenarios

Use these portfolio examples to learn what the simulator is showing

These scenarios are not recommendations. They are sample ways to use Portfolio Modeler when comparing stocks, ETFs, dividends, taxes, contributions, withdrawals, and downside risk. The most useful habit is to change one assumption at a time and record how the distribution changes.

Open the simulator

How to use the examples

Each example starts with a question rather than a target answer. Run the base case, save the results that matter, then adjust one variable. For instance, compare a 30-year portfolio with dividends reinvested against the same portfolio with dividends taken as cash. Or compare a monthly dollar contribution against an annual percentage withdrawal.

Enter the ticker mix and allocation shown in the scenario.
Use the same starting value and cash-flow assumption for each comparison.
Review P10, P25, median, P90, maximum drawdown, goal odds, and final-year dividend income.
Repeat with one changed assumption so the difference is easy to understand.

Diversified stock and bond baseline

This scenario is useful for learning how a diversified portfolio behaves when U.S. stocks, international stocks, and bonds are modeled together.

TickersVTI 60%, VXUS 25%, BND 15%

Time horizon20 to 30 years

Cash flowMonthly contribution

FocusP10 outcome and drawdown range

Try lowering the bond allocation, then increasing it. A higher stock allocation may improve upside percentiles, but the drawdown distribution may widen. A higher bond allocation may reduce the range, but can also reduce the median and upside results.

Dividend-income planning

This scenario is useful for studying the difference between total return and final-year income. It focuses on dividend yield, dividend growth, reinvestment, and tax drag.

TickersSCHD, VYM, VTI, BND

Time horizon10 to 25 years

Dividend settingCompare DRIP on and off

FocusFinal-year dividend income

Run the same portfolio once with dividends reinvested and once without reinvestment. Reinvestment can raise final value, while no-DRIP modeling can help estimate income that is taken out of the portfolio along the way.

Retirement withdrawal stress test

This scenario tests how withdrawals interact with uncertain return timing. A portfolio can have a strong average return and still struggle if weak markets arrive early in retirement.

TickersVTI 50%, VXUS 20%, BND 30%

Cash flowNegative monthly dollars or annual %

Time horizon25 to 35 years

FocusSequence risk and P10 path

Compare a fixed monthly withdrawal with a percentage withdrawal. Fixed withdrawals can put more pressure on the portfolio after a bad early market, while percentage withdrawals automatically adjust with the portfolio value.

Concentrated growth comparison

This scenario shows how higher-growth assumptions can also produce a wider range of possible outcomes. It is useful for comparing a broad index portfolio against a concentrated ETF or individual-stock sleeve.

TickersVTI, QQQM, selected individual stocks

Time horizon10 to 20 years

Allocation10% to 30% concentrated sleeve

FocusSpread between P10 and P90

If the P90 outcome improves but the P10 outcome drops or the drawdown gets much larger, the portfolio may be harder to hold. That tradeoff is exactly what the distribution is meant to reveal.

What to write down after each run

A useful portfolio comparison is more than a final balance. The simulator is designed to make a small set of planning numbers easy to compare:

P10, P25, median, mean, P75, and P90 final values.
Median maximum drawdown and the range of drawdowns across paths.
Goal odds for the first target value and any later checkpoint years.
Final-year gross and after-tax dividend income.
Ending value by holding, especially if allocations drift without rebalancing.

Educational use only: These examples do not account for every investor's goals, taxes, time horizon, risk tolerance, debt, income, or account type. Use them as starting points for understanding the simulator, not as portfolio recommendations.